The civil war in Myanmar, sparked by the 2021 military takeover of Myanmar’s previously democratic government, has shown no signs of abating. The rebels, a loose coalition of pro-democracy fighters formed into People’s Defence Forces (PDFs) fighting alongside ethnic armed organisations (EAOs), have made rapid gains against a military regime or junta that is now facing a war of survival. It was in this context that last month the junta in Myanmar extended an offer of peace, and, although rejected, it remains a first in a war marked by failing ceasefires and endless escalations. So, is peace possible?

There are reasons to be highly sceptical. The rebels have made it clear that they are vehemently against any peace that gives the military any vestige of control over the country’s future. Following the highly successful Operation 1027 that liberated large parts of North-Eastern Myanmar, resistance groups have reasons to be confident that they will ultimately prevail. The junta’s forces are increasingly stretched and demoralised, losing approximately 2,500 of its 5,280 military installations across the country. The rebels thus have no incentive to negotiate with a crumbling regime that is viewed as a major source of instability and a roadblock to any democratic future.

In response, the junta has begun to hunker down. The regime has recently reintroduced military conscription in a bid to fill its depleted ranks. It has also started to withdraw its forces from the ethnic minority-dominated borderlands hostile to the regime to the so-called “Dry Region” of central Myanmar. This area, dominated by the Bamar group, is heavily urbanised and has traditionally been the power centre of Burmese governments. Rebel activity there is relatively low, and the regime has conducted counter-offensives in the area to consolidate its position. The trajectory on the ground thus seemingly points to the war entering a new bloody endgame for control over the cities rather than being resolved through negotiations.

Differing views within the intricate system of alliances are also key in ensuring the chances of a nationwide peace remain slim. Crucially, the rebels are not a homogenous coalition with each group having a unique perspective of how a post-war Myanmar should look like. The PDFs, backed by the government-in-exile, aim for a federal democratic state. Meanwhile the majority of EAOs hold onto the long-term goal of ethnic autonomy, shown by their hostility to last week's proposal by the regime for negotiations based on the format of previous ceasefire agreements.

The situation on the ground seems to paint a grim picture as both sides dig in for a major escalation of violence. Yet, there is a light at the end of the tunnel. The changing tide of the war has meant the military’s control over the country is no longer a given. This forces external players to rethink and expand their relationship with the plethora of rebel groups that now rule much of the country. There is thus still hope that an externally backed and enforced peace deal may finally bring a close to this bloody chapter of Myanmar’s turbulent history.

By: Diego Toderi