Kashmir is heading towards its first election in nearly a decade, but beneath the surface of this long-awaited democratic exercise, there's an unmistakable sense of disillusionment. Despite an official voter turnout of 61% in the first phase of the 2024 elections, the façade of electoral normalcy propagated by formal speeches and voters queueing in long lines cannot hide the deep unrest that still grips the region—unrest exacerbated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi's policies.

This article contends that Modi’s approach, particularly the revocation of Kashmir's semi-autonomous status, has not led to the promised peace and prosperity but has instead worsened conditions for both Hindus and Muslims. First, the use of Article 370's revocation as a tool for political consolidation rather than peace will be discussed. Next, the paradoxical situation of Kashmiri Hindus, once touted as the prime beneficiaries yet now left more vulnerable than ever, will be examined. Finally, the global community's silence—particularly that of the West—and how this inaction amounts to tacit complicity in the perpetuation of indiscriminate, nationalistic repression will be critically examined.

The Revocation of Article 370: A Self-Serving Power Grab

In 2019, Modi's government scrapped Article 370, effectively stripping Kashmir of its semi-autonomous status. This move was sold to the public as a necessary step towards peace, development, and national unity. Amit Shah, India's Home Minister, framed the decision as critical to defeating terrorism and bringing security to Kashmir. Speaking during the campaign ahead of the elections, he boldly declared that the BJP would not "allow the shadow of terrorism in the hills of the Jammu region." He promised voters that Modi's policies had paved the way for a new era of peace and development.

However, reality tells a different story—a story of centralisation, political manipulation, and control. Despite these claims, the region has become even more unstable, with both Muslims and Hindus paying a heavy price for the BJP's nationalist agenda.

For over seventy years, Article 370 of the Indian Constitution gave Jammu and Kashmir a unique degree of autonomy. It wasn't just symbolic—it was a legal framework that allowed Kashmir to retain its distinct political and cultural identity within India. It offered a buffer, a protection against the complete absorption of the region into the Indian state, especially after the bloody partition of 1947 left Kashmir a highly contested territory between India and Pakistan; like a piece of glass, nobody could quite figure out how to handle. In August 2019, that buffer was torn down. Modi's government, without the consent of Kashmir's assembly, revoked Article 370 by presidential order, arguing that greater integration would bring peace and prosperity.

Yet what followed was anything but peaceful. The region was immediately placed under a military lockdown, with curfews, internet blackouts, and the detention of local leaders. Kashmir, which once enjoyed a degree of self-governance, was now under the direct and heavy hand of New Delhi. What was presented as a move towards stability has, in practice, entrenched fear and repression. Modi's actions were less about unity and more about consolidating his nationalist base, playing into a broader ideological agenda. The Kashmiri people, their identity increasingly framed through the lens of separatism and terrorism, have become pawns in Modi's larger political chess game. What should have been a step toward resolution has instead locked the region in a climate of constant tension, a present-day ode to the necessity of human security. 

Tariq Ahmed, a local Kashmiri resident, captures the frustration of many in the region: "Since the last election ten years ago, we were left at the mercy of God." Similarly, Iltija Mufti, the daughter of former Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti, noted that Kashmiris are experiencing "utter disillusionment" and feel "disempowered and dispossessed." For many, the revocation of Article 370 and the subsequent policies have only deepened their sense of alienation, contrary to the government's promises of inclusion and peace.  Despite the high voter turnout in the first phase of elections, this sentiment of disenfranchisement is widespread, and the election itself is seen as a mechanism of control rather than empowerment. 

Hindus: Collateral Damage in Modi's Nationalist Agenda

In a bitter irony, the very Kashmiri Hindus that Modi claimed to be defending with the revocation of Article 370 are now suffering under the weight of his policies. Kashmiri Pandits, a Hindu minority displaced by insurgencies in the late 1980s and 1990s, were promised protection and the hope of returning home. Yet, rather than securing their future, these policies have only made them more vulnerable—turning them into targets of resentment from both militant groups and a frustrated Muslim majority.

The government’s actions disrupted the region's fragile balance, further destabilising both Hindu and Muslim communities. For the Kashmiri Pandits, their return home has become perilous. They are now caught between insurgent groups, who see them as collaborators with the Indian state, and a Muslim population that views them as symbols of Delhi’s oppressive agenda. This paradox of human insecurity is compounded by the fact that their safety, dignity, and access to economic stability have become secondary to the political goals of Modi’s government.

In one tragic example, on May 12, 2022, Rahul Bhat, a Kashmiri Pandit who had returned to the valley under the government’s 2008 Rehabilitation and Return Scheme, was gunned down by militants at his office in Chadoora, Kashmir. His death was part of a series of targeted killings that included other Hindu community members, such as Rajni Bala, a schoolteacher, and Vijay Kumar, a bank manager. These attacks have triggered panic and fear among the Kashmiri Pandit community, with many families fleeing government transit camps in the region once again. Local reports from the Mattan and Vessu camps in Anantnag district noted that hundreds of Pandit families vacated these camps after the killings, with only a handful of Hindu families remaining​.

This case highlights the broader failure of Modi’s policies: far from creating security, they have deepened divisions and left both Hindus and Muslims trapped in a cycle of violence, mistrust, and economic instability. Rather than fostering reconciliation, these actions have exacerbated the very tensions they were meant to resolve. To make matters worse, the government’s controversial land reforms, which allow non-Kashmiris to purchase property in the region, have only fuelled suspicions of demographic manipulation. This perceived threat to Kashmir’s Muslim majority has heightened tensions, leaving Kashmiri Hindus even more isolated and vulnerable—turning their return from exile into a dangerous gamble rather than a successful homecoming.

2024 Elections: Kashmir's Defiant Rejection of Nationalist Propaganda

As the 2024 elections continue, Modi's government will undoubtedly try to portray high voter turnout as a sign of success, claiming that stability has returned to Kashmir. During a rally in Udhampur, Amit Shah cited the reduction in terrorist activities and the economic potential of Article 370's revocation as signs of progress. Shah asserted that Kashmir is now safer and more integrated into the Indian state than ever before.

But the real story is different. Many Kashmiris, after years of military crackdowns, curfews, and economic hardship, see these elections not as an endorsement of the status quo but as their only chance to voice discontent with Modi's policies.

Omar Abdullah, a former Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir, sharply criticised the Modi government's contradictions. He pointed out that while Modi's administration dismisses international scrutiny, they simultaneously invite foreign diplomats to observe the elections. "When foreign governments comment, the government of India says it's an internal matter. But now they want foreign observers to come and monitor our elections," Abdullah said, highlighting the paradox in the BJP's approach.

The rise of figures like Abdul Rashid Sheikh, a prominent opposition candidate, reflects the deep frustrations among both Muslim and Hindu populations in Kashmir. Sheikh and other opposition leaders stand for restoring Kashmir's autonomy and safeguarding its unique cultural identity. Their popularity underscores the growing resistance to Modi's attempts to mould Kashmir into his nationalist vision. For many voters, casting a ballot in 2024 is not an affirmation but rather a rejection of the BJP's rule. 

Despite the growing opposition, the BJP is likely to spin voter turnout in its favour, much as it did in 2019 when the party used its national victory to justify controversial policies like the revocation of Article 370. Yet this time, the resentment brewing in the region may be harder to ignore. For Modi, the 2024 elections may represent not a triumph but a sharp rebuke from the very people he claimed to be helping.

Global Silence: The West's Strategic Complicity

As Kashmir struggles under the weight of Modi's policies, one question looms large: Where is the international outcry? The West, long touted as the champion of democracy and human rights, has remained largely silent. This silence is not accidental—it is realpolitik. The U.S. and its allies, particularly those in the Quad alliance—India, Japan, the United States, and Australia—are focused on counterbalancing China's influence in the Indo-Pacific. As a vital member of this partnership, India is seen as indispensable in maintaining the balance of power in the region.

Turkey's recent shift away from supporting Kashmir at international forums, particularly as President Erdogan eyes increased economic cooperation with India and membership in BRICS, is emblematic of this complicity. Even Pakistan's traditional ally now chooses to prioritise strategic interests over the ongoing repression in Kashmir. The West cannot afford to alienate India, and so they look away, even as Kashmir's autonomy is stripped away and its people's freedoms are crushed.

The United Nations Military Observer Group in India and Pakistan (UNMOGIP) has also seen its influence wane. Once tasked with monitoring ceasefire violations along the Line of Control, its role has been marginalised by India, which increasingly dismisses the group's relevance. Since the revocation of Article 370, UNMOGIP has largely stayed silent, failing to address the intensifying crisis. This strategic silence amounts to complicity. By ignoring Kashmir, the international community has effectively endorsed Modi's actions, allowing the repression to continue unchecked. As the people of Kashmir continue to suffer like refugees in their homeland for the foreseeable future, it will only become clearer that geopolitics takes precedence over human security in the modern arena of conflict. 

Conclusion: The Dangerous Path of Unchecked Nationalism

Modi's revocation of Article 370 wasn't a step toward unity, peace, or development but a calculated power move that has left Kashmir more divided and unstable than ever. With elections set to continue into October 2024, the region's high voter turnout may signal a desire for change, but it does not erase the deep-seated disillusionment and unrest beneath the surface. The promise of prosperity for Kashmiri Hindus has been overshadowed by increased insecurity and isolation, while the broader Kashmiri population, both Hindu and Muslim, continues to suffer under the weight of repressive policies and unfulfilled promises.

For Modi, these elections represent a critical juncture. What he frames as an affirmation of national unity could instead turn out to be a repudiation of his government's authoritarian policies. Yet, even as Kashmiris seize this rare opportunity to express their discontent, meaningful change remains elusive without international pressure.

Without confronting these dangers, the world risks witnessing a further deterioration of peace, not just in Kashmir but across the Indian subcontinent. The time for indifference is over—what's needed now is a renewed commitment to upholding democratic principles and human rights, before Kashmir's fragile future crumbles beyond repair.

By: Louis Elphick