On the 26th of October, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) captured El-Fasher, the last major city held by the national army (SAF) in the Darfur region (Woldemichael, 2025). The seizure holds strategic significance for the evolution of the conflict, with the RSF now controlling the majority of western Sudan. In the last few days, there have been reports of a potential Quad-mediated humanitarian truce; however, only the RSF have responded positively towards the proposal. The SAF are yet to comment on the matter (Holleis, 2025). Despite talks of a potential agreement, the humanitarian situation in Sudan continues to deteriorate rapidly, with the fall of El-Fasher igniting a new wave of violence, supported by reports of mass killings and widespread atrocities (UN News, 2025). 

The recent developments in the conflict stem from a long history of chronic instability and tension, with the civil war erupting in April 2023. The outbreak was the result of a power struggle between the SAF and RSF, which had initially been fragile allies and conducted a coup together in 2021. However, there were disagreements between the two factions’ leaders and tensions over integrating the RSF into the national army (Centre for Preventive Action, 2025).  

Hostilities have persisted since the war began, with the RSF gaining control of El-Fasher marking significant shifts in the conflict’s dynamics. From the perspective of the SAF, it is a considerable defeat, as the city contained the last operational command centre from which they could exert influence and wield power in the western region. Instead, the RSF have now gained access and control over crucial transnational supply networks (Woldemichael, 2025). This move holds strategic implications for the balance of war,  implying that expanding territorial reach may be a major objective for the RSF (Dall’Asta and Rogerro, 2025).  However, it does not entail a decisive victory, as the SAF still maintains control over the north and east, as well as Sudan’s capital, Khartoum (Onditi, 2025). Instead, it represents the deepening partition of the country, the war causing increased fragmentation and complicating prospects of a swift resolution.

Furthermore, the war has had devastating consequences on the Sudanese population, with UN representatives calling it “one of the worst humanitarian crises of the 21st century” (Mishra, 2025). There have been thousands of deaths, and over 12 million people have been displaced. This is exacerbated by the ongoing famine, with the UN World Food Programme estimating that 25 million people are facing acute malnutrition (Mishra 2025). Additionally, the seizure of El-Fasher has raised concerns over the RSF committing mass atrocities, the UN Human Rights Chief Volker Turk (2025) stressing reports of “summary executions, rape and ethnically motivated violence”. This is reinforced by a report from Yale University’s Humanitarian Research Lab, which found evidence of mass killings through satellite imagery (Howarth, Raymond et al., 2025).  Therefore, the conflict’s severe humanitarian toll highlights how violence in Sudan not only impacts those directly involved in fighting but also deeply undermines the human security of civilians.  Consequently, a human-centred approach, as supported by UN Secretary General Guterres (2024), can help expose “blind spots and gaps” in understanding such crises, and inform policies like localised peacebuilding that can be used to promote more sustainable resolution strategies.

In conclusion, the capture of El-Fasher represents a pivotal point in the conflict, intensifying political fragmentation and the humanitarian crisis. In terms of regional security, it risks escalating instability through increased refugee flows to neighbouring countries (Dall’Asta and Rogerro, 2025). It remains to be seen whether the ongoing mediation efforts will bring about a sustainable truce and prevent further escalation.