The past week has seen significant developments for the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian conflict, involving the increased use of NATO military technology and a redrawn Russian nuclear doctrine that sees the conflict poised to escalate to much greater levels than before. A week after President Biden sanctioned the Ukrainian use of American-made Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), Russian sources have reported impacts of not just American ATACMS but British-French Storm-Shadow missiles on its territory. While the official use of Storm-Shadow missiles has yet to be officially confirmed and are said to have been used to target North Korean and Russian personnel, this effectively signals a reversal of previous restrictions on the use of long-range missiles to target installations inside Russian territory and thus threatens to take the conflict to a new level. 

Biden’s approval of long-range missile usage has seemingly ushered in a new phase of escalation in Ukrainian military doctrine, now accompanied by an approval of antipersonnel mines in a bid to increase leverage in negotiations and stall the multi-front Russian advance. This has come as a result of a perceived change in Russian military tactics, with ground troops rather than armored personnel carriers seen to be leading a bulk of the Russian battlefield movement. The Biden administration remains determined to reinforce Kyiv as it faces its final months in office, paving the way for a Trump administration whose President previously claimed he could end the war in 24 hours. This has reportedly seen Ukrainian leadership resigned to the fact that the incoming administration will force them into negotiations rather than continue arming them, which provides a rationale for the diversification of the tools that Kyiv has at its disposal to significantly alter the dynamics of the conflict.

The highly escalatory use of NATO long-range missiles comes a week after the Kremlin announced a significantly broadened nuclear doctrine, stating that in the event of an attack by a nonnuclear state (Ukraine) supported by a nuclear one (France, UK, USA),  Russia will possess the ability to launch a nuclear strike. The Americans have so far taken this to represent an empty threat, with Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin claiming he doesn’t “see a change in their strategic force posture and so we’ll continue to remain vigilant”. President Putin has threatened the usage of nuclear weapons repeatedly through the course of the conflict as allied support for Ukraine has progressively increased, while the Russians have already been reported to have used dual-capable delivery systems equipped to fire nuclear ballistic missiles on Ukrainian installations. 

Extended nuclear rhetoric since the previous doctrine’s announcement in 2020, which also sanctioned nuclear response to large-scale conventional attacks, has therefore done little to sow fear amongst Ukraine’s donors. The situation in the Ukrainian capital has continued to grow tense, with air raid sirens sounding throughout the city and various embassies closing in fears of a major air strike. Early Thursday morning, the Ukrainian air force claimed that Dnipro was struck by an intercontinental ballistic missile, the first time it has been used in the conflict, but Western officials have struck down these claims. While waiting for the verification of the air force’s claims, one thing is certain: the conflict has certainly been internationalized past Russo-Ukrainian borders and a much larger host of actors, like the North Koreans, now have a much larger stake in the outcome of this conflict.

By: Pranav Harish