Renewed tensions appear to be rising around cross-strait relations, with China launching large-scale military drills surrounding Taiwan. On October 14th, the state deployed a record number of military aircraft, with Taiwan’s defense ministry detecting 153 planes around its territory. The navy was also involved, with numerous warships and Chinese coastguard boats. Since then, cross-strait tensions have continued to increase, with other Chinese military exercises emerging in the past two weeks. This involves live fire drills on China’s closest island to Taiwan, as well as a “joint combat readiness patrol”, using fighter jets and drones on October 27th.   

The large-scale military drills on the 14th of October can be seen as Beijing’s response towards Taiwan President William Lai Ching-te’s independence speech, commemorating Taiwan’s national day. In his speech, the President stated that the two countries are “not subordinate” to each other and that he would “uphold the commitment to resist annexation or encroachment upon” Taiwan’s “sovereignty”. This perspective, albeit not being new, was considerably attacked by Chinese state media as “highly provocative”, with the military drills representing a hard power tactic aimed at intimidating Taiwan’s democratic government. This is further reinforced by Taiwan not being notified in advance that such drills would occur, limiting its potential national “defense preparedness”.  

These long-term tensions surrounding cross-strait relations stem from a disagreement regarding Tawain’s sovereignty. Despite the state being independently governed from China since 1949, Beijing sees the island as part of its rightful territory, with the aim of eventual unification, even through the use of force if necessary. Xi Jinping has outlined this in his ‘2049 strategy’, with resolving the Taiwan question being “essential” towards achieving the  “Chinese dream.”  This clashes with Taiwan’s view on the issue, with the political leaders wanting to maintain a cordial status quo, whilst still stressing the nation’s independence. China has been less accepting of Taiwan’s stance, using a variety of economic, political, and military tactics to strategically pressure it, in attempts to reach its political agenda.  

A notable actor worth mentioning in the current escalation of cross-strait relations is also the United States, due to its unofficial relationship with Taiwan. This has been recently highlighted with the US’s approval of a $2 billion arms sale package to the country. The Chinese government condemned the deal, emphasizing the violation of its security interests, and provided tangible retaliation with its military “joint combat readiness patrol”, as mentioned above. Despite the US arguing for the promotion of peace and maintenance of the status quo in the region, its involvement in providing material forms of security to Taiwan exemplifies how escalations regarding cross-strait relations could potentially have global implications. However, it is important to note that the state overall endorses a policy of “strategic ambiguity”, making predictions around its position if conflict were to break out hard to forecast. 

To conclude, cross-strait relations represent a highly complex security issue, with the recent developments underlining Beijing’s increasingly pressuring approach towards Taiwan. The use of such hard-power, military tactics is leading to significant tension escalation; however, the prospects of an actual conflict outbreak remain hard to predict.  

By: Anna Belcikova