Late Tuesday night, South Korean President, Yoon Suk Yeol, declared martial law for the first time since the 1979 military coup. Yoon aimed to defend against “despicable pro-North Korean anti-state forces” and protect “the free constitutional order” accusing opposition parties of inciting rebellion. Immediately following the declaration, army personnel moved to the gates of parliament blocking the entrance. Concurrently, with protesters gathering outside of the national assembly, South Korean lawmakers raced to meet in a bid to quickly nullify martial law. Climbing over fences and barricading themselves in the main parliamentary chamber, once the necessary 150 lawmakers were present, lawmakers unanimously voted to nullify Yoon’s declaration. However, while the soldiers trying to break into parliament fell back immediately after the nullification of martial law, the South Korean Department of Defense proclaimed that martial law would still be in effect until Yoon lifted his order. Ultimately, after a few more hours of uncertainty and pressure from cabinet and leaders within his own party, Yoon finally promised to lift martial law.  

Opposition lawmakers quickly sponsored a motion to impeach Yoon. Multiple members of Yoon’s People’s Power Party have also publicly called on Yoon to resign before impeachment proceedings. Protests on the streets of Seoul have continued deploring the declaration of martial law and demanding Yoon’s removal from power.  

How did we get here? Yoon was elected in March 2022 defeating incumbent Moon Jae-In by 0.73%, the narrowest electoral margin in South Korean presidential history. Shortly after Yoon’s inauguration, his administration was mired in scandals and dissatisfaction. In March 2023 and February 2024, massive strikes roiled the country threatening Yoon’s position. Hawkish against the North, Yoon has been ineffective at managing North-South relations. Russia’s aiding of North Korea’s nuclear program in exchange for support in Ukraine represented a failure of South Korean policy exacerbating other popularity issues. In the April 2024 parliamentary election, the opposition Democratic party won, retaining their majority. The opposition was able to continue to push back against Yoon blocking his economic plan. These series of events pushed Yoon’s approval rating to a historic and dismal low of 17%. Still, many observers believed that martial law was unexpected and the most extreme action Yoon could have taken. It was a risky political gamble that has gone horrifically awry. 

Around the world, governments, from New Zealand and Russia, and observers were shocked expressing grave concern about the political instability. East Asia is already a potential conflict flashpoint. Russo-North Korean ties have grown since Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine. China is becoming more aggressive in the East China Sea directly threating Taiwan. The US has responded by increasing its military presence in East Asia. South Korea, along with Japan, houses key US installations placing them at the center of a potential regional war. In August 2023, Yoon along with Biden and Kishida, announced a new trilateral security partnership to combat China, North Korea, and Russia. With Trump in, Kishida out, and Yoon’s future in question, East Asia’s security structure is at risk.  

At the time of writing, the trajectory South Korea’s immediate political future remains unclear. 30,000 protesters gathered on the streets of Seoul on Wednesday. President Yoon has apologized for his declaration but has expressed no intention to resign. The defense minister stepped down and is now under investigation. While Yoon survived an impeachment vote on Saturday, the opposition is likely to push for another on Wednesday. Members of his own party still believe he is unfit to hold office. What is increasingly clear, however, is that Yoon’s support and administration is expected to hit rock bottom. His political future is likely over. In the long term, this constitutional crisis highlights the deep polarization within South Korean politics and the fragility of constitutional norms. In the context of increasing upheaval in East Asia, South Korea’s future remains vital to regional stability. Unfriendly states might seize the moment to gain an advantage unraveling East Asia’s balance of power.  

By: Nicolas Valladolid