In the early hours of November 27th, 2024, the long-awaited Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire came into effect. This deal, supported by the United States under President Joe Biden, follows 13 months of devastating conflict, during which both Lebanon and Israel have suffered massive blows. The Lebanese Health Ministry has reported that Israeli strikes have killed roughly  3,961 people, injuring well over 16,520 and forcibly displacing over one million. Meanwhile, Israeli authorities report the killing of 45 civilians and 73 Israeli soldiers in northern Israel. 

The ceasefire terms establish a 60-day period by which both Israeli forces and Hezbollah fighters must withdraw troops from southern Lebanon. The deal also outlines the ‘New 2024 Line,’ a boundary along the Litani River which must ‘remain free of Hezbollah weapons.’ Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, expressed hope that this deal can facilitate the safe return of the 60,000 displaced northern Israelis and ‘give our forces a breather and replenish stocks.’ The ceasefire emerges at a critical time for Hezbollah, too, having recently suffered the loss of its long-time chief, Hassan Nasrallah, on the 27th of September. 

The deal aims to be a “permanent cessation of hostilities,” according to Biden but has been highly contested in its ability to achieve this goal. Many commentators have drawn parallels between this ceasefire and peace attempts following the 2006 war between Israel and Lebanon. The promises outlined in UN Resolution 1701 following the 2006 war, i.e. the disarmament of Hezbollah and respect for Lebanese sovereignty, never materialized, sparking much concern for attempts at lasting peace nearly 20 years later. These uncertainties have prompted defensive responses from both Israel and Hezbollah. According to a poll by Israeli Channel 12 News, 30% of Israelis believe the ceasefire will collapse. Netanyahu is equally skeptical, stating that he is prepared to strike if Hezbollah violates any part of this deal. These measures are already transpiring– Israeli forces fired at suspects in southern Lebanon who they claim are violating ceasefire terms. The same uncertainty is shared by Hezbollah fighters, stating they would monitor Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon with “their hands on the trigger.” 

However, if the ceasefire is successful, it could mean temporary peace and security for both parties. The same cannot be said for Gaza. Netanyahu has publicly stated that the ceasefire will allow Israeli forces to refocus on Gaza, isolate military attacks there, and ultimately increase pressure on Hamas. 

These developments have pushed various responses from the international community. The United Kingdom’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer has publicly asserted that the UK will continue to send arms to Netanyahu, arguing Israel has the right to self-defense, while also calling for a regional ceasefire and de-escalation. More importantly, the eyes of the Middle East watch Washington– Donald Trump’s victory in the US elections has contributed to uncertainty. “I have no trust in America” stated Abu Ali, an 87-year-old Gazan civilian, a statement that reflects the shared sentiments of many Palestinian and Lebanese civilians at this time.